Deal To Watch: Health-Conscious Meals Delivered

Key Stats:

Summary

Provenance has been selected as a “Deal To Watch” by KingsCrowd. This distinction is reserved for deals selected into the ​top 10% of our deal diligence funnel​. If you have questions regarding our deal diligence and selection methodology, please reach out to ​hello@kingscrowd.com​.

Problem

Unhealthy eating habits are hard to break and in the last 30 years, the obesity rate for American adults has doubled. Not to mention an “unhealthy diet contributes to approximately 678,000 deaths each year in the U.S., due to nutrition- and obesity-related diseases, such as heart disease, cancer, and type 2 diabetes.”

Many of us don’t take the time to cook, or simply don’t have the time. Eating out is the easier, but less healthy alternative. Time is just one hurdle that we often face when it comes to healthy eating, whether that is time to cook, shop, or do the research to find out what your body needs.

Solution

Provenance wants to capitalize on the prepared meals trend all while prioritizing healthy eating. Provenance offers premium, organic prepared meals. No cooking required! Provenance meals are gluten-free, dairy-free, organic, and contain no GMOs, pesticides, or refined oils. 

Provenance offers customers three options and no subscription is required. The first is the “Daily Essentials” program which provides three meals for $68 a day. The second is the $75 per day “Detox” program which consists of a 5 or 7 day cleanse comprised of shakes, supplements, and plant-based meals. Finally, Provenance offers a “Two Week Transformation” program starting at $65 per day. An optional membership fee of $99 annually saves customers 10% on recurring orders. 

Traction

Provenance has delivered over 62k meals to date and claims to have an average order value of $244. According to Provenance’s Form C Filing, revenue for the most recent fiscal year was $1.4M. The cost of goods sold for the same time period was just over $549k, leaving an impressive profit margin. This was an increase from the prior year when revenue was just over $1M, suggesting steady growth.

Additionally, Provenance has established some impressive cross-promotional partnerships with big-name companies like Equinox. Finally, the meal plan seems to have caught on with celebrities and influencers, including Sarah Paulson and Gina Rodriguez.

Team

Founder and CEO, Caroll Lee, is a Certified Health Counselor and previously served as Culinary Director at Urban Detox Club. She also owned an artisanal cafe and market called Get Fresh Table and Market. Prior to this, she served as eBusiness Production Manager at Gucci. She holds a degree in History and Women’s Studies from McGill University.

Director of Operations, Lauren Haupt, has extensive experience as a Pastry Chef at Native Cakes. She holds a degree in Sociology of Food from CUNY- Hunter College.

Market Landscape

Provenance exists at the intersection of two large and growing markets: the wellness foods market and the prepared meals market. “In 2016, the global health and wellness food market was valued at 707.12 billion U.S. dollars and is projected to increase to 811.82 billion U.S. dollars by 2021.”

“Revenue in the Ready Meals segment amounts to US $65,567m in 2019. The market is expected to grow annually by 2.6% (CAGR 2019-2023).” Both of these markets are large and growing, suggesting that the intersection of the two is a hot place to be.

Why We Like it

• A Large Addressable Market: Provenance taps into two trending markets, that of wellness food and prepared meals. Not only are both markets large, they are growing. In fact, “Nielsen’s 2015 Global Health & Wellness Survey that polled over 30,000 individuals online and suggests consumer mindset about healthy foods has shifted and they are ready to pay more for products that claim to boost health and weight loss.” This is especially as the role of diet in overall health is becoming more and more apparent.

• Impressive Traction: Provence has been around for quite a while, seven years to be exact, and they have the numbers to prove it. With over $1.4M in revenue, Provenance is set apart from a lot of other startups we see in the crowdfunding space. Not only is this number impressive, it has grown steadily throughout the company’s lifetime.

• Ripe for Acquisition with Competitive Differentiation: HelloFresh, a food subscription company, acquired Chef’s Plate and Green Chef in October and March of 2018, respectively. Green Chef offered a delivery service with a health focus similar to Provenance. What sets Provenance apart from these companies is the “no cook” concept. As opposed to sending customers pre measured ingredients to do the cooking themselves, Provenance meals are fully prepared when they arrive on your doorstep, eliminating the time component as a hurdle to healthy eating.

The Rating: Deal To Watch

Provenance is a Deal To Watch. While the addressable market is large and traction is quite impressive, the business model may not be entirely sustainable. The team outlines their target market as “busy urban professionals ages 25-45, mostly female, with a household income of over $200K per year;” a niche group that may significantly shrink the total addressable market. 

This is not to say that this model isn’t working. The numbers speak for themselves. And this is the type of product that could inspire lifestyle branding and influencer following. But is it sustainable? Only time will tell. Starting at $68 per day may be too steep to maintain. Introducing more affordable plans, perhaps “dinner only” plans, etc. may be the way to compete. The Daily Harvest, for example, offers smoothie subscriptions at $47 for six smoothies per week. With this business model, the Daily Harvest team has now reached Series B funding status and has $43M in total funding.

Finally, the team has some impressive industry knowledge and has operated in the food space for years. Despite the concerns regarding the business model, the team and traction are incredibly impressive, making Provenance a Deal To Watch.