Traditional retail is in trouble. Due in large part to the COVID-19 pandemic — but also due to the demise of some retail concepts — vacancy rates in retail are on the rise. The vacancy rate in the second quarter this year was reported to be as high as 20%. This is up from 11.4% seen just one year earlier. As a result, landlords are struggling. Furthermore, companies that could benefit from a retail footprint are faced with several disadvantages, including high costs, long-term leases, and the risk that certain areas might decline or consumer preferences might change. These have all led to retail brand leaders suffering in recent years.

The founders of Popshop believe they have the answers to the problems facing both property owners and retailers. Through their app, retailers have the opportunity to book vacant retail establishments on a temporary basis. The idea here is to use that space to set up shop, generate sales, create greater brand awareness, and to do all of this on a budget. The retailer is not locked down under long-term lease agreements. The property owner, meanwhile, receives the ability to monetize an asset that would otherwise have been sitting empty. In a sense, this business model is very similar to that of Airbnb.

Through the app, retailers and property owners have the ability to communicate with one another. They can negotiate pricing and other terms of the arrangement. The property owner even has the ability to approve or deny an opportunity the retailer requests. This flexibility is a big selling point for both sides. 

For retailers who either don’t want to set up temporary retail outlets or who want to do that in addition to running their own online store, Popshop also has the solution. In just minutes, Popshop’s system allows users to create their own online store through which they can sell goods to customers. This online component is a nice touch that plays on the ever-growing paradigm shift toward e-commerce.

Since launching, Popshop has managed to gain quite a bit of traction. At present, the company boasts more than 1,600 brands in its community. These brands include names like Marc Jacobs, Firefox, Target, HBO, and more. They also have no fewer than 855 retail spaces spread across five countries and 90 cities on their roster. Property owners include firms like Vornado, Federal Realty, and more. Collectively, the business has seen over $3.15 million in booking volume through mid-2020. And their aggregate gross revenue since the first quarter of 2019 has been in excess of $420,000. Management boasts a $53 customer acquisition cost, and the platform generates $230 in revenue for each customer on average.

Management has found a few ways to monetize the Popshop platform. For commercial spaces leased, they charge a 15% booking fee. Since any revenue generated by property owners is incremental to their other revenue sources, this is not a high price to ask. For online sales, Popshop charges a fee of between $0.20 and $0.30 for every transaction. This is on top of a subscription plan charged to online store owners. The company has three such plans, with pricing from $9.99 per month to $49.99 per month. Property owners, meanwhile, are charged $49 per month for each space they want to feature (not for every space listed).

Popshop’s early growth has been impressive. In 2018, the platform generated sales of just $25,026. This surged to $298,370 last year. As with most early-stage startups, Popshop is still generating a loss and seeing negative cash flows. In 2018, the firm’s loss was $229,527. This grew to $467,310 last year. Operating cash outflow, meanwhile, grew from $190,095 to $406,252 over the same timeframe.

At the broadest level, Popshop belongs to the global retail market. In 2019, this market was estimated to be worth $4.25 trillion. Between 2020 and 2027, the expectation is for it to grow at an annualized rate of 9.4%. Assuming this holds true, it should rise to $8.72 trillion by the end of our forecast period. The US portion of this retail space will be worth around $3.76 trillion at the end of the period. On the e-commerce side, the opportunity in the US is worth about $601.75 billion. This is up 14.9% from the $523.64 billion seen a year earlier (in 2018). This works out to about 16% of all retail sales, up from 6.4% that it accounted for back in 2010. Yet a different source pegs the US e-commerce retail market at about $547.69 billion for 2019. If it is accurate, the market should expand by 7.8% per annum, eventually reaching $740.39 billion by 2023.

Of course, this is all of the revenue generated by retail, both physical and online. This isn’t Popshop’s game. They see their sales come from booking fees, subscriptions, and transaction fees. On the transaction fee front, the math is a little simpler. According to one source, in March of 2020 e-commerce companies reported 14.34 billion visits to their sites. Surely not every visit results in a sale. But in the best case, assuming it does, this would work out to an opportunity of between $34.42 billion and $51.62 billion in transaction fees annually.

The booking side of the equation is far more challenging. It seems best to rely on expectations of the pop-up shop industry. According to one source, this market should be worth around $10 billion today. A different source, however, pegs the figure at closer to $50 billion. The much smaller brand activation market (which is a subsegment of the pop-up shop market), is estimated to be worth around $740 million today. This represents a sizable increase over the $600 million opportunity it represented in the US back in 2016.

The management team at Popshop consists of three key individuals. The first of these is Nathan Franco, the company’s co-founder and CEO. Previously, Franco served as the Principal and co-founder of The Standard Group. Before that, he was the VP of Acquisitions and Development at Legion Investment Group. He held the same role previously at HAP Investments. The other co-founder of the business is Efrayim Ahdut. He also serves as its COO. At one point, he worked as the President and co-founder of The Standard Group. He was also the Managing Partner at Tikvah Development. The last key member of the team is Sean Auriti, Popshop’s CTO. In the past, he founded, managed, and built infrastructure for Alpha One Labs makerspace. He has also been featured on the front page of The New York Times for a DARPA-funded space group, and he holds a B.S. in Electronic Engineering Technology.

After careful consideration, Popshop has earned a Neutral rating. On the positive side, the company is playing into the niche pop-up shop market. It adds to this by boasting an easy-to-setup online store for its users. Traction so far has been impressive, and the company’s revenue strategy is sensible. In its activities, it addresses multiple problems faced by multiple parties as well. All of this is encouraging from the perspective of investors. Having said that, the retail market is a tough space to play in. Competition is fierce, and it remains to be seen just how large the opportunity here is. Property owners, in particular, might come to see this as more of a threat to business than a boon. After all, the frequency at which they are likely to generate revenue from these activities is probably low. And locking down long-term leasing contracts may be viewed as a more favorable emphasis at a time when low vacancy rates are surely affecting property owners’ margins. The company’s sizable and growing losses are not awe-inspiring either. Taken altogether, Popshop is a neutral investing opportunity.